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Addressing the problem of lack of representativeness on syndromic surveillance schemes

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Natário I., Lucília Carvalho M.

Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics

2009

tom 29

nr 2

169-183

A major concern with some contagious diseases has recently led to an enormous effort to monitor population health status by several different means. This work presents a modeling approach to overcome this poor data characteristic, allowing its use for the estimation of the true population disease picture. We use a state space model, where we run two processes in parallel - a process describing the non observable states of the population concerning the presence/absence of disease, and an observational process resulting from the monitoring. We then use resampling importance sampling estimation techniques, in a Bayesian framework, which enables us to estimate the population states and, thus, the corresponding disease incidence curves.

Ograniczanie wyników

1 Discussiones Mathematicae Probability and Statistics

1 Lucília Carvalho M.

1 Natário I.

1 2009

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Addressing the problem of lack of representativeness on syndromic surveillance schemes