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On adaptive control of Markov chains using nonparametric estimation

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Two adaptive procedures for controlled Markov chains which are based on a nonparametric window estimation are shown.
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This paper presents a new formulation for set-membership parameter estimation of fractional systems. In such a context, the error between the measured data and the output model is supposed to be unknown but bounded with a priori known bounds. The bounded error is specified over measurement noise, rather than over an equation error, which is mainly motivated by experimental considerations. The proposed approach is based on the optimal bounding ellipsoid algorithm for linear output-error fractional models. A numerical example is presented to show effectiveness and discuss results.
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Estimating median and other quantiles in nonparametric models

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Though widely accepted, in nonparametric models admitting asymmetric distributions the sample median, if n=2k, may be a poor estimator of the population median. Shortcomings of estimators which are not equivariant are presented.
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As a result of intensive changes in plant production and of environmental changes in agrocenoses, certain agrophages, such as slugs, have in recent years been causing ever increasing amounts of damage to crops of agricultural, horticultural and orchard plants. As a result of the European Parliament and Council Directive adopted on 13 January 2009, the countries of Europe have been required to implement integrated plant protection. One of the principles of this protection is the implementation of strategies which minimize the use of chemical pesticides. Moreover, in accordance with decisions of the European Commission, many active substances have been or are to be withdrawn from the list of available pesticides. An example is metaldehyde, which is to be withdrawn from use in EU countries in the next few years (Commission Decision C/2008/7637 of 5 December 2008). It therefore becomes necessary to seek environmentally safe substances and to develop non-chemical methods for protecting plants against harmful slugs. An alternative to chemical molluscicides is the parasitic nematode Phasmarhabditis hermaphrodita. Studies have been made of the effectiveness of this biological method in combating Polish populations of the invasive slug species Arion lusitanicus. This was an incomplete multivariate study, i.e. not all variables could be observed for all treatments on all experimental units. Multivariate model of observations has been derived and a method of analysis has been described. The results of these studies provide a basis for the development of environmentally friendly methods of protecting plants against harmful slugs.
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Time-varying time-delay estimation for nonlinear systems using neural networks

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Nonlinear dynamic processes with time-varying time delays can often be encountered in industry. Time-delay estimation for nonlinear dynamic systems with time-varying time delays is an important issue for system identification. In order to estimate the dynamics of a process, a dynamic neural network with an external recurrent structure is applied in the modeling procedure. In the case where a delay is time varying, a useful way is to develop on-line time-delay estimation mechanisms to track the time-delay variation. In this paper, two schemes called direct and indirect time-delay estimators are proposed. The indirect time-delay estimator considers the procedure of time-delay estimation as a nonlinear programming problem. On the other hand, the direct time-delay estimation scheme applies a neural network to construct a time-delay estimator to track the time-varying time-delay. Finally, a numerical example is considered for testing the proposed methods.
EN
Classical extreme value methods were derived when the underlying process is assumed to be a sequence of independent random variables. However when observations are taken along the time and/or the space the independence is an unrealistic assumption. A parameter that arises in this situation, characterizing the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary series, is the extremal index, θ. In several areas such as hydrology, telecommunications, finance and environment, for example, the dependence between successive observations is observed so large values tend to occur in clusters. The extremal index is a quantity which, in an intuitive way, allows one to characterise the relationship between the dependence structure of the data and their extremal behaviour. Several estimators have been studied in the literature, but they endure a problem that usually appears in semiparametric estimators - a strong dependence on the high level uₙ, with an increasing bias and a decreasing variance as the threshold decreases. The calibration technique (Scheffé, 1973) is here considered as a procedure of controlling the bias of an estimator. It also leads to the construction of confidence intervals for the extremal index. A simulation study was performed for a stationary sequence and two sets of stationary data are under study for applying this technique.
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Computing with words and life data

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The problem of statistical inference on the mean lifetime in the presence of vague data is considered. Situations with fuzzy lifetimes and an imprecise number of failures are discussed.
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On the General Gauss-Markov Model for Experiments in Block Designs

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The main estimation and hypothesis testing results related to the Gauss- Markov model, in its general form, are recalled and the application of these results to the analysis of experiments in block designs is considered. Special attention is given to the randomization-derived model for a general block design, and for a proper block design in particular. The question whether the randomization-derived model can be considered as a particular general Gauss-Markov model is discussed. It is indicated that the former, as a mixed model, is in fact an extension of the general Gauss-Markov model. Thus, the analysis based on the randomization-derived model requires a more extended methodical approach. The present paper has been inspired by one of the last papers of Professor Wiktor Oktaba.
EN
Summary The main estimation and hypothesis testing results are presented for experiments conducted in proper block designs. It is shown that, under appropriate randomization, these experiments have the convenient orthogonal block structure. Because of this, the analysis of experimental data can be performed in a comparatively simple way. Certain simplifying procedures are introduced. The main advantage of the presented methodology concerns the analysis of variance and related hypothesis testing procedures. Under the adopted approach one can perform them directly, not by combining results from intra-block and inter-block analyses. Application of the theory is illustrated by three examples of real experiments in proper block designs. This is the first of a projected series of papers concerning the analysis of experiments with orthogonal block structure.
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