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Forecast horizon in dynamic family of one-dimensional control problems

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EN
CONTENTS 1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2. Sufficient conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 3. Definitions and hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4. Properties of arcs and trajectories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 5. Dynamic family of optimal controls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 6. The maximum principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 7. Horizon theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 8. Remarks to horizon theorems. An economic application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 9. Discrete-time linear systems with stochastic parameters. Horizon theorems . . . . . 29 10. Proof of horizon theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 11. Final remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38   References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
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Two hedging points policy for an unreliable manufacturing system

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EN
This paper deals with an unreliable manufacturing system in which limited backlog is allowed. An admissible production policy is described by two decision parameters: upper and lower hedging points. The objective is to find the optimum hedging points so as to minimize the long run average expected cost under an additional condition. The condition expresses a constraint for the limiting probability of the event that the system stays at the lower hedging point, which corresponds to a limit of backlog. The cost consists of two parts: holding inventory cost and shortage cost. The optimum hedging points are determined.
EN
A production inventory problem with limited backlogging and with stockouts is described in a discrete time, stochastic optimal control framework with finite horizon. It is proved by dynamic programming methods that an optimal policy is of (s,S)-type. This means that in every period the policy is completely determined by two fixed levels of the stochastic inventory process considered.
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