Survival probabilities for HIV infected patients through semi-Markov processes

• Autorzy: Giovanni Masala , Giuseppina Cannas , Marco Micocci
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this paper we apply a parametric semi-Markov process to model the dynamic evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. The seriousness of the infection is rendered by the CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts. For this purpose we introduce the main features of nonhomogeneous semi-Markov models. After determining the transition probabilities and the waiting time distributions in each state of the disease, we solve the evolution equations of the process in order to estimate the interval transition probabilities. These quantities appear to be of fundamental importance for clinical predictions. We also estimate the survival probabilities for HIV infected patients and compare them with respect to certain categories, such as gender, age group or type of antiretroviral therapy. Finally we attach a reward structure to the aforementioned semi-Markov processes in order to estimate clinical costs. For this purpose we generate random trajectories from the semi-Markov processes through Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed model is then applied to a large database provided by ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy), and all the quantities of interest are computed.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

semi-Markov process; HIV states; waiting time distribution; evolution equation; survival probabilities; Monte Carlo simulation

• Wydawca: De Gruyter Open
• Czasopismo: Biometrical Letters
• Rocznik: 2014
• Tom: 51
• Numer: 1
• Strony: 13-36

Daty

wydano

2014-06-01

online

2014-06-06

Twórcy

autor

Giovanni Masala

• Department of Economics, University of Cagliari,Via S. Ignazio, 17 – 09123 Cagliari, Italy

autor

Giuseppina Cannas

• Department of Economics, University of Cagliari,Via S. Ignazio, 17 – 09123 Cagliari, Italy

autor

Marco Micocci

• Department of Economics, University of Cagliari,Via S. Ignazio, 17 – 09123 Cagliari, Italy

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/bile-2014-0002