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2016 | 2 | 1 |
Tytuł artykułu

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible for precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. The larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.
Wydawca
Rocznik
Tom
2
Numer
1
Opis fizyczny
Daty
otrzymano
2016-07-29
zaakceptowano
2016-11-09
online
2016-12-05
Twórcy
autor
  • Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, USA,
  • Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune 411008, India
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, USA,
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, USA,
  • Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune 411008, India
Bibliografia
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.doi-10_1515_mcwf-2016-0002
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