EN
We prove that every set A ⊂ ℤ satisfying $∑_{x}min(1_A*1_A(x),t) ≤ (2+δ)t|A|$ for t and δ in suitable ranges must be very close to an arithmetic progression. We use this result to improve the estimates of Green and Morris for the probability that a random subset A ⊂ ℕ satisfies |ℕ∖(A+A)| ≥ k; specifically, we show that $ℙ(|ℕ∖(A+A)| ≥ k) = Θ(2^{-k/2})$.