Ensemble neural network approach for accurate load forecasting in a power system

• Autorzy: Krzysztof Siwek , Stanisław Osowski , Ryszard Szupiluk
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents an improved method for 1-24 hours load forecasting in the power system, integrating and combining different neural forecasting results by an ensemble system. We will integrate the results of partial predictions made by three solutions, out of which one relies on a multilayer perceptron and two others on self-organizing networks of the competitive type. As the expert system we will apply different integration methods: simple averaging, SVD based weighted averaging, principal component analysis and blind source separation. The results of numerical experiments, concerning forecasting the hourly load for the next 24 hours of the Polish power system, will be presented and discussed. We will compare the performance of different ensemble methods on the basis of the mean absolute percentage error, mean squared error and maximum percentage error. They show a significant improvement of the proposed ensemble method in comparison to the individual results of prediction. The comparison of our work with the results of other papers for the same data proves the superiority of our approach.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

neural networks; blind source separation; ensemble of predictors; load forecasting

• Wydawca: University of Zielona Gora Press
• Czasopismo: International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science
• Rocznik: 2009
• Tom: 19
• Numer: 2
• Strony: 303-315

Daty

wydano

2009

otrzymano

2008-09-11

poprawiono

2009-01-17

Twórcy

autor

Krzysztof Siwek

• Institute of the Theory of Electrical Engineering, Measurements and Information Systems, Warsaw University of Technology, pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Stanisław Osowski

• Institute of the Theory of Electrical Engineering, Measurements and Information Systems, Warsaw University of Technology, pl. Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland
• Institute of Electronic Systems, Military University of Technology, ul. Kaliskiego 21, 00-908 Warsaw, Poland

autor

Ryszard Szupiluk

• Department of Business Informatics, Higher School of Economics, Al. Niepodległości 123, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.2478/v10006-009-0026-2